BUSH'S SECOND TERM

A bit of crystal-ball-gazing...

FOREIGN POLICY. This projection is based on a variable and a trend. The variable is strength. The trend is easing towards normalcy.

Strength involves not only action but the credible threat of action. A credible threat of action amplifies your actual resources, because you can get people to do what you want without actual using (expending) those resources. Those who prefer "jaw jaw" to "war war" (like me) must understand that a strong leader is in a better position, not only to wage war, but also to negotiate.

Israeli Prime Minister Rabin told his policemen to break legs to end the first intifada. He was widely condemned at the time. But later he came close to achieving peace through the Oslo process, after a conflict that had lasted 50 years. He was able to do this because of strength. He was widely admired by liberals who had condemned him before, not understanding the link between strength and negotiation.

It will be the same with Bush.

Iraq. Allawi enjoys the confidence of the people and is determined to bring democracy to the country. Sistani has tremendous moral authority, and is set on peace and elections. The insurgents can't win, because they do not represent Iraq (as The Onion pretends) but only a subpopulation of the Sunni Arab minority. They just don't have the numbers to overcome the Iraqis who are fighting against the country's dark past.

The resistance is banking on a Kerry win. It may melt away as soon as Bush is elected. If not, the country may slide into civil war, but if so "our side," the Allawi-Sistani side, the CPA-installed government, will win. Perhaps bloodily. The elections will be held, whether in the whole country or only part. Whether "we" will win is a question with a false premise: we wanted to remove the Saddam government, and we did. "Mission Accomplished" was right all along. This is just the epilogue for us. It's their war now. And they will win, too. Our troops will stay on in military bases as Iraqis take over the fighting.

Iran.
Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities in early December. This will provoke a tidal wave of rage at the UN and among the Arab League, will be condemned by Sistani, Allawi, Tony Blair and many others. But a condemnation from the US will remain ominously absent. Public opinion polls in the US will show strong support for Israel, and the neocons will call for a repositioning of troops in case war with Iran is necessary. After a few tense weeks, Bush will pull a Richard Nixon and show up in Teheran. At a historic summit with Khatami which shocks the world, Iran will agree to recognize Israel, drop the "Great Satan" for America, and dissolve its nuclear program in return for a lifting of the sanctions, sizeable dollops of US aid, and a sharing of intelligence about the insurgency in Iraq. Iran will also demand, and be granted. a place at the negotiating table in any future talks on Israel-Palestine. (This will be their vengeance against Israel for the bombing.)

As Afghanistan and Iraq become democracies, and with Khatami's standing strengthened by the meeting with Bush, the path will be opened to Iran's "velvet revolution." I don't think this will happen during Bush's second term, though Bush's transformation of the Middle East will be the major precipitating factor; probably, like Reagan and the fall of communism, Bush will leave office too soon to be president when his work achieves its culmination.

With the end of the Islamic Republic, and with the acknowledgment by leading Democrats that OBL is probably dead, the "war on terror" will start to fade out of history. This will be the beginning of a shift in Bush's reputation, from warmonger to the great peacemaker.

The rest of the world
Fear will gradually turn to respect; respect will turn to appreciation. This is already happening, as more world leaders realize that Bush's strength is an asset to them all. The western Europeans are having doubts about a Kerry presidency, while Vladimir Putin and John Howard are endorsing Bush. Angela Merkel will replace Gerhard Schroeder; Nicholas Sarkozy will replace Jacques Chirac; but Tony Blair will win a third term. The notion that dictators as murderous as Saddam are not fit to rule, and the Iraq precedent of overthrowing them, will begin to seep into international law, and will be quietly accepted as a step forward for mankind.

DOMESTIC POLICY

Economic growth will continue strongly throughout Bush's second term. The deficit will shrink because of rising revenue.

Fiscal discipline.
In Bush's third debate performance, it became pretty clear that Bush really likes spending money. He just doesn't have the conservative instinct to begrudge spending more money. Nor Congress. Nevertheless, I think Bush will restrain federal spending in his second term, for two reasons. First, it was a campaign promise, and he's pretty good about keeping those. Second, he will-- indeed, I think he already is-- getting the message from conservatives who are angry about the deficit.

But if the Republicans don't learn fiscal discipline, the Democrats will. After a defeat in 2004, Democrats would have to face the fact that the only thing they had to show for the past 24 years, politically, is the still-popular Bill Clinton presidency. And that was popular because he turned the budget to surplus, reformed welfare and grew the economy. In 2006, some Democrats will unseat Republicans in the House and Senate by calling themselves "Clinton Democrats" and sticking to one issue, the deficit. This will set the trend for the 2008 election; and the Bushies will get the message, too.

Social Security reform.
Bush will force this through with the same boldness he showed in going to war in Iraq. Once it's passed, it will be a huge political success. The elderly will soon discover that everything the Democrats said about their benefits being cut was a lie. The reform will channel a lot of money into capital markets, increasing the savings rate and business investment, reducing the trade deficit, and accelerating economic growth. But it will drain the trust fund and take a trillion dollars out of the government's coffers, which will help frighten the federal government into fiscal discipline. Bush will resist pressure for tax hikes, but many states and cities will hike taxes to fill in the gap left by federal spending.

Immigration reform.
After January, Bush will once again push his guest card proposal. Signs that Bush is making headway with Hispanics will provoke a lot of Democrats to support it. It won't solve much; immigration will keep surging; and it will be more of an issue in 2008 than in 2004.

MORNING IN AMERICA

By 2008...

As in the late 1990s, we'll be entering one of those moments in history when the pundits are a bit dizzy coming to terms with recent successes, when intellectuals are offering grand new vistas over human history a la Francis Fukuyama's "The End of History," when there's a sense, somewhat transient and foolish of course, that all the big problems have been solved. The Democrats will be staging a strong comeback and will probably win, either in 2008 or maybe 2012, by turning into charming, market-friendly, internationalist semi-hawks like Clinton. Tom Friedman will be in heaven. The world economy will be on a path to strong growth. The intimations of a new civil rights movement will be underway. George Bush, like Ronald Reagan and Franklin D. Roosevelt, will be one of those figures whose greatness has a certain unshakeable, statuesque quality to it. Some of his phrases, included many from the (rehabilitated) first debate with Kerry, such as "the valley of peace" and "the transformational power of liberty," will echo through the halls of history, quoted by both sides as a lofty, authoritative source. By the time Bush steps down, there will be a widespread sense that he's not needed anymore, after all. Because the lessons he symbolized will already have been learned too well to be forgotten. A reversion to appeasing Islamofascism (what's left of it) will be out of the question. A reversion to the unfair, statist Social Security program will be absurd.