Towards A Good Samaritan World

Monday, December 13, 2004

BLOGS' FUTURE

Hamilton's Pamphlets has a post about blogger burnout: "Darwin Comes to Blogging."

The volume and frequency of blogging will rise and fall based on many things. In the months leading up to the Presidential election the blog world was on fire. Everyone was posting several times a day and reading multiple blogs, chasing threads and posting comments. Since the election things have toned way down. As we approach the Christmas Holidays, I would expect more and more people will be spending time Christmas shopping, visiting relatives, and spending time with their families and thus a lull in blogging.

Is blogging a "tulip bulb craze" or just a passing fad? I think not. There are several blogs that have been around for years and as software and hosting services become easier and less expensive to use, I think more, not less, will blog. Sure, Blog was the #1 looked up word this year and may indicate a short term peak in popularity, which logically will be followed by a sharp decline. However, I predict long term sustained growth (sounds like I'm selling a mutual fund or something...weird).


While my prediction would be that the number of blogs may peak soon in the US (there are over 6.5 million, it seems) I agree that the blog phenomenon is here to stay. I expect bloggers will increase in importance even if their numbers do not continue growing. And on the world, as opposed to the US, stage, they have many mountains to climb still. My hope is that a coalition of citizen-bloggers and journo-lobbyists will displace what Robert Kaplan calls "the media clerisy."

I think blogging could-- must!-- give rise to new forms of community. I often feel that people who read my blog know more about me than long-time friends, because they know what I believe in, and I'd like to meet some of them face-to-face. But since the fuel of the blogosphere is not money, it will have to be idealism.

1 Comments:

  • Ann Althouse has a post on Blogger Burnout today. Here's the link, sorry but I can't figure out how to make it a hotlink in Blogger...

    http://althouse.blogspot.com/2004_12_01_althouse_archive.html#110311732196806967

    By Blogger Alexander, at 9:35 AM  

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